Top 5 Things We Wanted to See in AFCARS This Year
Accurate and transparent adoption and foster care data are essential to understanding the state of the U.S. child welfare system and the needs of the children and families it serves.
Each year, the federal government collects hundreds of data points and publishes a portion of this information in its annual AFCARS reports. NCFA staff review these reports to better understand what’s happening in foster care and adoption across the country and to identify the trends that matter most for children and families.
But data doesn't always mean what it seems. For instance, a reported reduction in the number of children entering foster care is not a reliable measure of whether the foster care system is improving. Those shifts can reflect many other factors not reflected in the data, such as fewer reports of abuse or neglect being investigated or children not receiving the protective services they need.
So, what does give us a clearer picture of child safety and permanency? Which data show how well the foster care system is performing?
In this article, we focus on just that. We highlight the top five things we wanted to see in AFCARS data this year and explore the trends that most reliably indicate whether the foster care system is helping children and families as intended.
Changes in Data Trends
No single statistic tells the whole story. These are the top five data trends we look at to assess whether the foster care system is performing well and where we had hoped to see improvement this year:
- The time children spend in foster care
- The time children wait between termination of parental rights (TPR) and adoption
- The number of children awaiting adoption
- The number of youth aging out of foster care
- The number of children living in congregate care
Together, these trends reflect how quickly children achieve safe, permanent family environments, and how often the system relies on institutional placements instead. Reductions across these areas can reliably indicate progress towards prioritizing child safety, stability, and timely permanency. With that said, it is important to note that the U.S. foster care system has experienced population declines across the board, with fewer children entering, exiting, and currently in care. As a result, changes in any single measure should be considered within this context, as declines may reflect an overall smaller foster care population rather than meaningful improvements to system processes.
Changes to Data Reporting
In addition to federal reporting producing complete and comparable data, it is equally important that data be provided in a timely manner. When data is released years after the reporting period, its usefulness is diminished. Relying on years-old information makes it challenging to inform policy decisions or educate the public about the current state of adoption and foster care and therefore prompt timely action and improvement.
Turning the AFCARS dashboard into a real-time tool, rather than a historical snapshot, would offer significant benefits for the public and for advocates working to improve the system. Recent AFCARS reports did show notable progress in timeliness of reporting, and we hope to see continued improvement with a consistent, predictable release schedule or rolling updates.
In 2025, updates to AFCARS data rules were implemented for the first time, including some helpful improvements in reporting. However, missing data from certain states, changes to which data points are reported, and changes to key definitions make historical comparisons challenging for the near future. Missing data significantly reduces the usefulness of new data, leaving the public trying to make sense of national trends with incomplete information. NCFA recommends the prioritizing of complete national data to ensure that trends can be monitored and conclusions drawn from the full range of state, tribal, and territory data.
In future AFCARS reports, NCFA also strongly recommends re-incorporating a variety of items that have been included in previous reports, including the length of time children are in foster care, time between TPR and adoption, adoptive family structure, adoption subsidy status, and the relationship of adoptive parents to child.
Conclusion
Adoption and foster care data are essential for system accountability and for advocating for better outcomes for children and families. Overall, this year’s data reveal discouraging trends, with little improvement in key measures of child stability and permanency. Children are spending longer in foster care and waiting longer for adoption after TPR—delays that can have lasting impacts on children’s stability, well-being, and lifelong connections. More work is needed to ensure timely, safe permanency for all children who encounter the foster care system. NCFA calls on the U.S. Children’s Bureau to provide clearer and more complete data in future reporting. We will continue to monitor these trends and advocate for policies and practices that promote timely permanency and lasting family connections for children.
References
(1) Berlin, M., Vinnergljung, B., & Hjern, A. (2011). School performance in primary school and psychosocial problems in young adulthood among care leavers from long term foster care. Children and Youth Services Review, 33, 2489-2497. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2011.08.024
(2) Lloyd, E. C., & Barth, R. P. (2011). Developmental outcomes after five years for foster children returned home, remaining in care, or adopted. Children and Youth Services Review, 33(8), 1383–1391.
(3) Vinnerljung, B., & Hjern, A. (2011). Cognitive, educational and self-support outcomes of long-term foster care versus adoption. A Swedish national cohort study. Children and Youth Services Review, 33(10), 1902–1910. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2011.05.016
(4) Jim Casey Youth Opportunities Initiative. (2013). Cost avoidance and outcomes of youth aging out of foster care. Annie E. Casey Foundation. https://assets.aecf.org/m/resourcedoc/JCYOI-CostAvoidance-2013.pdf
